Research & Insights

Click below for our commentary, analysis, and insights into the market, market history, investment trends, and behavioral finance. Our aim is to educate, amuse, or enrich with each new published piece.

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5 Predictions for the Next 5 Years

Whitepaper 5 Predictions for the Next 5 Years Each team member's prediction for the next 5 years.

Beyond Cloud Computing: Why We’re Watching This Digital Trend

Commentary Beyond Cloud Computing: Why We’re Watching This Digital Trend Editor’s note: This piece was originally published in November 2019. It has been lightly edited and updated as of July 2023. In a letter to investors, 1623 Pro Fund portfolio manager Jeff Fischer wrote in an investor letter:

Dissecting the Great Growth Stock Drawdown: Under the Hood of a Dot-Com-Like Decline

Whitepaper Dissecting the Great Growth Stock Drawdown: Under the Hood of a Dot-Com-Like Decline Under the Hood of a Dot-Com-Like Decline.

Invest Smarter - Avoiding Common Behavioral Biases

Commentary Invest Smarter - Avoiding Common Behavioral Biases A silver lining of the kind of market volatility we've experienced thus far in 2022 is that it can serve as a sobering reminder to revisit your thesis on each position you own and reevaluate your portfolio to withstand the turbulence. Periodically ...

Is There Another Crisis Coming for Banks?

Whitepaper Is There Another Crisis Coming for Banks? Banks had a tumultuous 2023. Our new whitepaper argues that one troubled sector could lead to more pain ahead.

Mastering the Art of Risk Management: Four Essential Hedging and Shorting Strategies

Commentary Mastering the Art of Risk Management: Four Essential Hedging and Shorting Strategies At least as much as investors like making money in the stock market, they dislike losing money, and therefore many of us seek ways to hedge. We want the historically strong long-term upside of the stock market, but without all the potential ...

One Simple Solution to Help You Play the Long Game in Investing

Commentary One Simple Solution to Help You Play the Long Game in Investing If I were giving advice to a young investor who’s just starting out, my advice might go something like this: Buy good companies at reasonable prices, benefit from long-term business momentum, and keep your turnover low so that you minimize your ...

The Contradiction at the Core of the Stock Market

Commentary The Contradiction at the Core of the Stock Market There is a contradiction at the core of the stock market that makes investing at once simple and endlessly vexing:

The Dead Fidelity Investors

Commentary The Dead Fidelity Investors One of the most famous pieces of research ever attributed to Fidelity Investments looked at client accounts over the period 2003-2013. Coming on the heels of the dot-com crash, and despite the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) midway through, this ...

The Definitive List of What Investing Is Like

Commentary The Definitive List of What Investing Is Like Investing is, apparently, like a lot of very different things. Here is a not-even-exhaustive list of the things to which investing has been analogized:

The Double Bear Spread Hedging Strategy

Commentary The Double Bear Spread Hedging Strategy We recently outlined four different shorting strategies (see that November commentary). Today, we share another way to hedge with options that meets two key criteria for long-term investors who want a market hedge in place: This hedge can be ...

The Long and Short of our Stocks

Commentary The Long and Short of our Stocks Every investment manager will tell you that they buy exceptional companies that have competitive advantages. Even we say it. But without additional context, that statement has become almost meaningless. In today’s fast-changing environment, what ...

The Myth of 10% Returns: We focus on a number that is (almost) never true. Why?

Whitepaper The Myth of 10% Returns: We focus on a number that is (almost) never true. Why? We focus on a number that is (almost) never true. Why?

The Portfolio Management Marathon

Commentary The Portfolio Management Marathon Type “investing is a marathon, not a sprint” into Google’s search bar, and you’ll get about 743,000 results.

The Power of Patience: Why Consistent Goodness Beats Occasional Greatness

Whitepaper The Power of Patience: Why Consistent Goodness Beats Occasional Greatness Why Consistent Goodness Beats Occasional Greatness

The Predictive Power of the P/E: On the illusion of causality.

Whitepaper The Predictive Power of the P/E: On the illusion of causality. On the illusion of causality.

The Risks No One Is Talking About

Commentary The Risks No One Is Talking About This image, from the Nintendo video game “Super Mario Brothers,” went viral on X/Twitter a few years back:

The Short Story on Our Shorts

Commentary The Short Story on Our Shorts We strive to own a portfolio of leading companies that will grow in value the more we let them alone—even as we, of course, watch our businesses closely. To hedge an ever-variable part of our long market exposure, we also want to manage an active ...

What Drives Long-Term Stock Returns? Analyzing the primary driver of equity returns.

Whitepaper What Drives Long-Term Stock Returns? Analyzing the primary driver of equity returns. Analyzing the primary driver of equity returns.

What to Make of the Great AI Hype

Whitepaper What to Make of the Great AI Hype AI may still be underestimated, but investors should remain cautious and highly selective.

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